Bitwise CIO lists five shifts supporting crypto bull case

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan outlined five structural shifts he says make a bullish argument for crypto easier to justify in 2026. He set out the view in a post on X on Aug. 24 and contrasted the current environment with 2014, 2018 and 2022, which he described as years when it was “hard to be bullish” because of major failures and regulatory pressure.

Hougan noted progress in U.S. rulemaking. On Aug. 18 the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a framework called Regulation Crypto Assets that would allow certain offerings up to $5 million over four years or $75 million in a 12-month period and would include a conditional investment-contract safe harbor. The proposal is open for comment through Oct. 20. He also said legislative questions remain about broader market-structure rules.

Stablecoins and tokenization were presented as measurable changes in market structure. Hougan cited combined stablecoin supply above $300 billion by mid-2026 and described stablecoins as used for trading, payments, remittances and settlement. He said tokenization is moving from experimentation toward regulated financial infrastructure in several markets, and that U.S. and U.K. authorities have increased cooperation on digital assets, stablecoins, payments and tokenized securities, including efforts to reduce cross-border friction.

Hougan described a growing set of crypto assets that generate revenue and return capital to token holders. He highlighted Hyperliquid, reporting about $800 million in revenue last year and directing roughly 99% of that revenue to buy and burn its HYPE token. He also pointed to Uniswap and Aave as examples of projects introducing mechanisms that tie protocol fees or revenues to token economics.

The fifth factor linked demand for bitcoin to pressure on fiat currencies. A Bitwise Europe sovereign-default model produced an illustrative $224,000 bitcoin fair value, which Bitwise described as not a price target. The model assumed governments and companies planned to borrow about $29 trillion in 2026 and depended on assumptions about default probabilities and the value of insured sovereign bonds.

Hougan referenced an earlier post on July 1 in which he identified signs such as extreme fear, deeply discounted valuations and negative funding rates as possible indicators of a market bottom and wrote that a new bull phase might begin in the fall.

Summing the five factors, he wrote: “The crazy thing about 2026 is how easy it is to be bullish: Regulatory progress, stablecoins scaling, the rise of tokenization, assets with real revenue and buybacks, and a debasement bid.”