Bitcoin under $65,000 as US PMI fuels stagflation concern

Bitcoin traded below $65,000 at Thursday’s Wall Street open, hovering around $64,000 and down about 0.5% for the day as US equity markets opened flat.

The US Institute for Supply Management services PMI, released Wednesday, rose 0.1 point to 54.1. The employment subindex fell 3.6 points to 47.4, its lowest reading since March. The ISM prices paid index increased 2.6 points to 70.3. Market commentary noted that the prices paid reading has trended higher for more than two years and has risen substantially since March 2024.

Traders monitored developments in the Strait of Hormuz after reports of a potential Iran-Oman understanding to reopen the route produced no immediate clarity. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi cautioned, “this understanding does not, in itself, mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.” US WTI crude was near $76 per barrel, after trading as low as $74.30 the previous day.

Onchain analytics pointed to muted conviction in Bitcoin’s recent price action. Glassnode described market behavior as “boredom rather than capitulation,” characterizing the market as compressed and under-owned with bottom conditions forming but not complete. Bitcoin has traded in a range since early June and trading volumes have not supported a decisive move higher or lower.

Crypto exchange research teams echoed the view that a larger catalyst would be required to change the current pattern. Bitfinex Research wrote that while macro developments and Bitcoin’s underperformance versus major US indices indicate stress, “a genuine breakdown requires something more forceful, followed by volume-supportive price action.”

Other asset moves were mixed: gold reached a six-week high while the S&P 500 hit all-time highs. Traders and analysts expect markets to await further geopolitical signals and upcoming macroeconomic data to establish clearer direction for Bitcoin and other risk assets.