Bitcoin posts first monthly TD9 reversal since 2022

Bitcoin recorded a ‘perfected’ TD9 monthly reversal for the first time since July 2022. Traders say the pattern could mark an inflection in the current bear market but caution it is not a standalone buy signal.

Analyst Tony Severino flagged the completed TD9 setup on the monthly chart in a post on X on Tuesday. The TD9 is a variant of the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator. The setup completes when nine consecutive monthly candles meet closing-price tests against the close four months earlier; a ‘perfected’ TD9 finishes the sequence on the required monthly close.

A TD9 downtrend signal occurred in July 2022. After that signal, bitcoin spent roughly five months consolidating and finding a bottom. Trader and podcast host Tony Carrera wrote on X that a TD9 is ‘not a buy signal by itself’ but ‘the kind of thing you pay attention to’ if it holds into the close.

Traders also pointed to bullish divergence on the relative strength index across several time frames. Trader and analyst Scott Melker posted on X that he has ‘rarely seen more confirmed and potential bullish divergence with oversold RSI on more time frames,’ and added that divergences across time frames raise the odds of a trend change.

Participants remain divided on timing and price targets. Some traders discuss a $55,000 target, while cycle-based comparisons place the current bear phase at roughly two-thirds complete. Those views leave open the possibility of lower macro lows before a sustained uptrend.

Analysts say TD9 and RSI address different aspects of price behavior: TD9 tracks sequences of closes that can signal trend exhaustion, while RSI divergence measures shifts in momentum. Both readings require confirmation through subsequent closes, volume and broader market context.

Technical analysts note monthly TD9 signals are uncommon and have coincided with late-stage bear-market behavior in the past, but the indicator has produced false starts. Market participants recommend weighing TD9 and RSI together with other technical tools and risk management before taking positions.