Bitcoin supply in profit nears 60% as analysts warn reversal

Bitcoin supply in profit climbed to 57.5% on July 22 from a 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The figure measures the share of Bitcoin whose market value exceeds the price at which it was last moved.

The spent output profit ratio for long-term holders, or LTH-SOPR, has improved but remains under a key threshold. SOPR tracks whether coins moving onchain are being spent at a profit (values above 1.0) or a loss (values below 1.0). CryptoQuant contributors use the 30-day simple moving average of LTH-SOPR as a gauge of long-term holder selling behavior; LTHs are addresses that have not moved coins for at least six months.

CryptoQuant analysts say two conditions have historically aligned with the end of bear markets: the 30-day average of LTH-SOPR staying above 1.0 for an extended period and total supply in profit exceeding roughly 64%. The current 30-day LTH-SOPR average has been below 1.0 for more than 50 days.

Onchain data points to a prior false breakout earlier this cycle. From April 28 to June 1 the 30-day LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days and supply in profit reached about 67%, but both metrics later retreated.

Supply in loss crossed the 50% mark in June, a level that has often appeared near cycle bottoms in previous bear markets. That metric and continued long-term holder losses remain factors cited by analysts when assessing the strength of the current rebound.

Market demand signals are mixed. Spot-market activity is described as weak while some institutional investors have increased Bitcoin allocations, producing divergent flows between retail and professional participants.

Analysts warn the recovery could reverse if the 30-day LTH-SOPR average does not consolidate above 1.0 and supply in profit fails to sustain levels above the roughly 64% threshold.