Bitcoin supply-in-loss countdown nears 50 days

K33 Research reported that Bitcoin’s supply-in-loss metric crossed the 50% threshold on June 5. About seven weeks later, the firm recorded roughly 42 days since that signal, putting the current interval close to 50 days.

K33 measured the time from the 50% supply-in-loss point to each prior cycle low and found a range of outcomes. In 2022 the time to bottom was 13 days, in 2018 it was 23 days, and in 2014 the market continued lower for 101 days after the same signal. K33 noted that the 2026 interval is the second-longest in its dataset.

The supply-in-loss metric shows the share of circulating BTC held at a price below the last acquisition cost. The measure uses each coin’s last moved price to determine whether holders are underwater and is used in onchain analysis to summarize holder positions across the network.

CryptoQuant highlighted investor cost-basis models that complement supply-in-loss readings. Its realized cap variance (RCV) model compares realized capitalization — the sum of coins valued at their last moved price — with market capitalization and expresses the difference as a standardized z-score. At a z-score near -2.35, RCV sits in the bottom six percent of its historical range.

CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk wrote that the model “isolates the variance between realized cap and market cap relative to its own rolling history, capturing how stretched or compressed investor cost basis has become versus current valuation,” and added that “when that variance compresses into deeply negative z-score territory, the emotional premium built during rallies has largely been priced out.” CryptoQuant also noted that earlier extended stretches below a -2.0 z-score, in late 2018, mid-2022 and early 2015, were followed by strong twelve-month returns, in some cases exceeding 75 percent. The most extreme RCV reading in the firm’s dataset, a -4.68 z-score in November 2018, coincided with a cycle low near $3,792.

K33 observed that returns in the year following past instances of supply-in-loss rising above 50% “tend to be very solid.” CryptoQuant’s supply-in-loss estimate differed from K33’s: as of July 17, CryptoQuant put supply-in-loss at about 46 percent. The two providers use different methods and timestamps, which produces variation in their readings.

Analysts note that these metrics measure distribution of realized cost and market valuation and do not provide exact dates or price targets. Traders and researchers use supply-in-loss and cost-basis models to assess market conditions and compare current readings with past cycles.