Bitcoin stalls as Ethereum records weekly death cross
Bitcoin closed the week at $61,749 after failing to clear $64-65K resistance, down 2.89%. Ethereum’s 50-week EMA fell below its 200-week EMA, trading near $1,730.
Bitcoin failed to clear resistance in the $64-65K range and closed the week at $61,749, down 2.89%. The coin opened the week near $63,587, spiked to $64,657 and then retreated. It fell to a 21-month low of $58,035 before recovering. The Average Directional Index is 30.7, indicating a defined trend, and the Relative Strength Index sits at 36.8, near but above oversold levels. Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average remains above the 200-week EMA, though the gap has narrowed.
Prediction markets put roughly a 72–73% probability that Bitcoin will touch $55,000 before reaching $84,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a 10-day, roughly $2.7 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million inflow on July 2 and have since recorded about $510 million in net inflows. On-chain data show some long-term holders have resumed accumulation. The crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 23. Total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined about 30% since January, and several recent crypto IPOs have underperformed their debuts.
Ethereum confirmed a weekly death cross after its 50-week EMA fell below the 200-week EMA. The token traded near $1,730 and opened the week around $1,784. Ethereum’s daily chart has been in death-cross territory since November 2025. Shorter-term indicators show an active downtrend: ADX reads 26.5 with bearish directionality and RSI is about 36.9. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent downleg mark activity between $2,098.9 and $1,985.5; the current price is close to a Fib level at $1,731.8 and the next notable reference is $1,500.
Prediction markets assign about a 72% probability that Ethereum will hit $1,500 before returning to $3,000. U.S. spot ETH ETFs had a record 17 consecutive days of net outflows totaling roughly $401 million in May, followed by another 10-day outflow streak in June; they recorded $29.1 million in inflows on July 2.
Market structure has changed since the prior halving: spot Bitcoin ETFs, broader institutional balance-sheet exposure and accounting and regulatory developments are now part of the ecosystem. The next Bitcoin halving is about 21 months away. One bank’s 12-month Bitcoin forecast stands at $82,000 with a downside scenario of $53,000, and its bear-case target for Ethereum is near $1,094. Analyst John Bollinger questioned whether the recent pattern would break the trend.
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