Bitcoin Stalls Below $80K as Sellers, ETF Outflows Pressure

Bitcoin fell back toward $76,000 after a rally that briefly reached about $79,500 on April 22, with the $80,000 level holding as resistance. Short-term holders realized gains near a $78,000–$79,000 breakeven range while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $390 million in net outflows over three days.

On-chain data show a concentration of addresses whose cost bases sit in a $77,800–$80,880 range, with about 475,301 BTC held at that average cost. Glassnode wrote that the pattern is “textbook” for a down market, where price reaching the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort prompts exits that can overwhelm incoming demand. The firm added that the rejection near that range confirms overhead resistance and shifts the mid-term bias toward additional downward pressure.

Metrics tracking profit-taking by recent buyers indicate heavy distribution as price approached $80,000. The 24-hour simple moving average of short-term holder realized profit rose to around $4 million per hour and briefly spiked to $7.2 million per hour on April 15. That wave of realized gains coincided with three consecutive days of ETF redemptions totaling about $390 million, the longest outflow streak since a three-day drawdown in late March that preceded an 11.5% price drop after a rejection at $76,000.

Technically, Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages. Technical analyst SuperBitcoinBro described “one bottoming signal after another firing on higher timeframes” but noted that the market needs to clear and hold $80,000 to pursue higher targets. Market participants point to $84,000 as the next significant resistance if $80,000 is convincingly breached. Daan Crypto Trades identified $80,000 as the main short- to mid-term level for bullish scenarios.

Analysts also highlighted ETF flows as a market driver. Wise Advise observed that the return to ETF outflows after a nine-day inflow streak could indicate that a local top is in place. These funds hold spot BTC and affect trading liquidity on major venues, meaning sustained flows can influence available buy-side or sell-side liquidity.

Short-term holders are defined as addresses that acquired BTC recently and are typically more sensitive to price moves; their collective breakeven levels can form visible supply zones. Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide regulated exposure to BTC and report flows that market participants track as a proxy for demand and liquidity.