Bitcoin to retest $60K in August, recover to $70K: analyst
Bitbanker analyst Andrey Poroshin forecasts bitcoin will retest $60,000 in August before recovering to about $70,000 amid muted Fed signals.
Andrey Poroshin, a financial analyst at Bitbanker, forecasts bitcoin will fall to between $60,000 and $62,000 in August and then recover to about $70,000. He attributes the expected short sell-off to muted signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve after its decision to hold interest rates and to inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
Bitbanker operates in Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Kyrgyzstan. In a baseline scenario, Poroshin frames the August decline as a short retracement followed by a quick recovery rather than a sustained downturn.
In a note, Poroshin wrote, “Bitcoin ends July under the pressure of moderate volatility and the absence of new drivers from macroeconomics. The U.S. Federal Reserve has not given the markets either positive or negative signals, so participants remain cautious.”
He identified the winding down of the derivatives exchange BitMEX as a potential catalyst for a rebound. Poroshin argues the departure of short-term and less committed traders can remove “weak hands” from the market, a pattern that has coincided with the formation of reversal zones and reduced short-term downward pressure on price.
Poroshin also pointed to structural factors in mining. A recovery to roughly $70,000 would remain below the estimated base cost of bitcoin mining in the United States, a condition that has led some U.S. miners to repurpose computing hardware for artificial intelligence data centers and other nonmining uses.
On geopolitics and regulation, Poroshin assesses that the Iran-U.S. escalation has become less influential for bitcoin price moves. He does not expect the CLARITY Act to pass in August and flagged September as a month likely to bring wider price swings tied to Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and possible congressional action on crypto legislation.
Poroshin presents the projection as a baseline outlook, linking the short-term decline to subdued macroeconomic drivers and the later recovery to market consolidation and the exit of speculative positions.
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