Bitcoin Reclaims Short-Term Holder Cost Basis; Eyes $92K

Bitcoin reclaimed the short-term holder cost basis near $79,000 and climbed to about $82,240 during early Asian trading on Wednesday. Data show the token has risen roughly 37% from a multi-month low near $60,000 on Feb. 6 to trade above $82,000.

Onchain analytics place the short-term holder (STH) cost basis-the average purchase price for investors holding Bitcoin fewer than 155 days-around $79,000. The market recently moved back above that level. Historically, similar recoveries of onchain measures have been followed by extended price advances; for example, after reclaiming the realized price in April 2025, Bitcoin rose about 30% to an upper band near $112,000 over the next four weeks.

The STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which identifies whether recent sellers receive profit or loss on their holdings, moved back above 1. A SOPR reading above 1 indicates that recent sellers are, on average, selling at a profit rather than a loss.

Technical indicators focus attention on the $82,000–$84,000 supply zone. Bitcoin closed the week above the 20-week exponential moving average and the true market mean near $78,300. The 200-day exponential moving average stands near $82,600 and the 200-day simple moving average is around $83,402. Exchange order books show larger sell orders concentrated between $82,000 and $84,000.

Market participants outlined possible scenarios and short-term targets. In a post on X, analyst Mitchell Askew wrote that Bitcoin had ‘‘crossed the coveted ‘short-term holder breakout.’’’ Analyst Plan C wrote that if price can ‘‘find sustained support above this level,’’ the decline from the $126,000 peak would look more like a mid-cycle correction. Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that acceptance above the low $80,000s could produce ‘‘a further bounce back into the $90Ks,’’ while rejection there would likely keep the market rangebound with about $80,000 acting as a ceiling. MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe pointed to $84,000–$86,000 as the next resistance band and linked a clear break to the 50-week moving average near $90,000.

Several analysts identified a short-term target around $92,400 if the market flips the $84,000 area into support, roughly a 13% rise from current levels. Traders are monitoring whether buyers can overcome the concentrated sell orders in the low $80,000s and sustain price levels above the STH cost basis and the key moving averages for confirmation of further upside or signs of renewed selling pressure.