Bitcoin options point to $80K max-pain as futures swell

On Aug. 5, bitcoin options calculations placed peak max-pain levels well above spot while more than $41 billion of futures contracts remained open. Futures open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose 6.82% that day as spot bitcoin traded near $64,711.

Exchange-level futures data show concentration of positions across a few venues. Binance held the largest futures open interest at about 148,500 BTC, roughly $9.61 billion. CME held about 102,840 BTC, or $6.66 billion. Other platforms with significant open interest included MEXC at about $6.12 billion, and Bybit and Gate each near $4.5 billion. Total futures open interest across exchanges has recovered from a low earlier in the year to just north of $41 billion.

Options open interest favored calls over puts in aggregate. Calls accounted for 254,394 BTC of open interest versus 156,227 BTC in puts, a roughly 62%-38% split. Total options open interest across venues moved back toward $36 billion. Over the prior 24 hours, new options volume was roughly balanced between calls and puts. On CME, options activity has declined: notional value fell from about $290 million last November to roughly $50 million, and puts have outnumbered calls on that exchange.

Max-pain calculations differed by platform but remained above spot. OKX showed September and December max pain near $69,000. One major venue’s December max-pain calculation approached $80,000 for the Dec. 25 expiry. Another platform showed peaks near $69,700 for September and December, easing toward about $60,000 by mid-2027. All major max-pain readings on Aug. 5 stood above bitcoin’s $64,711 price.

The futures basis rose over the past months. The three-month annualized basis across several major platforms increased to about 4.3% from roughly 0.3% in late April. A positive basis indicates futures were trading at a premium to spot, reflecting demand for forward exposure.

Leverage-driven liquidations have affected recent price action. Data for the period show Binance long positions absorbed roughly $70 million in liquidations on July 6 and about $65 million on July 14. Short positions saw $30 million to $40 million erased on July 9 and 10. Another $50 million in long positions was liquidated on Aug. 1.

Open interest is concentrated in short-dated expiries. Most derivatives positions cluster in one- to two-month expirations, indicating traders are repeatedly rolling or extending short-term bets rather than placing large long-term directional wagers. Market participants will watch upcoming weekly and monthly expiries, especially at CME, to track whether the futures basis remains elevated and whether max-pain levels move higher toward the $80,000 band seen on some platforms.