Bitcoin Nears $79K After US CPI Sends 30-Year Yield High

Bitcoin climbed toward $79,000 on Friday after the US Consumer Price Index for August matched expectations at 3.4% year‑on‑year. Core CPI rose 0.3% month‑on‑month. The report sent the 30‑year Treasury yield to its highest level since June 2004 and triggered volatile trading across crypto, bond and equity markets.

After the CPI release, bitcoin briefly fell to about $76,000 before reversing and rising more than 3% to trade near $79,000. US benchmark stocks recovered from an early dip, with the S&P 500 up about 1% and the Nasdaq Composite up roughly 1.1% at mid‑session. The 30‑year Treasury yield spiked on the initial reaction before settling around 5.309%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the gasoline index jumped 3.9% in August, accounting for more than one‑third of the monthly increase in the all‑items index. Overall energy costs rose 2.1% for the month. West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $100 per barrel amid tensions in the Middle East. The CPI print followed a Producer Price Index report the previous day that exceeded estimates.

Market pricing for Federal Reserve policy tightened after the data. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the implied probability of a 25 basis‑point hike at the Sept. 16 meeting near 85%, up from about 60% a week earlier. The Fed’s current target range remains 3.50%–3.75%.

Fed governor Christopher Waller has indicated he could be inclined to hold rates if inflation showed signs of cooling, stating, “What’s the cost of waiting one meeting? Hiking 25 basis points, one meeting right now, is not going to bring the CPI down to 2%.”

Trading firm QCP Capital warned that higher long‑dated yields can reduce the appeal of risk assets. The firm wrote that rising US yields have been driven more by tighter policy expectations and a growing risk premium common to stocks and bonds than by stronger growth, calling it “the worst mix for Bitcoin: a competing 5% risk‑free rate without the nominal‑growth impulse that usually accompanies yield moves.” QCP added that recent bitcoin gains had been supported in part by expectations around Treasury debt‑buyback operations.

A market note described conditions as “nervous” after the CPI release. Short‑term volatility in Treasuries and equities continued to feed quick price swings in crypto as traders reassessed the outlook for interest rates. The CPI report arrived days before the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting.