Bitcoin Gains 11.9% in April; Analysts Split on May

Bitcoin rose 11.9% in April to about $78,190, delivering its strongest monthly gain in a year and producing two consecutive positive monthly closes after several months of declines.

April’s 11.87% monthly return was the largest since April 2025, when the token climbed 14.08%. Data from CoinGlass show April’s gain was slightly below the historical April average of about 12.98%.

Bitcoin opened April near $66,000 and closed the month around $78,190. The price remains roughly 38% below its October all-time high near $125,100. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 39, a reading classified in the “Fear” range.

Market participants pointed to seasonal patterns and recent monthly price action when framing expectations for May. CoinGlass data show Bitcoin’s historical average return in May is about 7.78%. Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote on X that after five consecutive red monthly candles, two green closes have eased short-term pressure.

Analysts offered differing outlooks for the weeks ahead. Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that the April advance may have been driven largely by futures positioning and flagged the risk that an unwind of leverage could lead to a multi-month price decline. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe wrote on X that Bitcoin may not need a new narrative to move back above $100,000, adding, “There doesn’t need to be a narrative that pushes the price upwards.” Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin posted, “Long way to go back to ATHs, but good to see some green.” An analyst using the name Jelle wrote, “We hit the ground running again next week.”

Several market observers highlighted derivatives and market structure as factors that could affect short-term direction. They noted that rallies driven by futures flows can reverse quickly if leverage is trimmed, while sustained higher prices would require continued demand from spot buyers and longer-term holders.

Bitcoin last traded above $100,000 on Nov. 13. Market data show that came shortly after an Oct. 10 liquidation event that removed roughly $19 billion from the market.

Investors and traders are watching seasonal trends and positioning in futures and options markets for signs of follow-through. For now, prices near $78,000 and the Fear & Greed reading of 39 indicate cautious sentiment among market participants.