Bitcoin Eyes $69K After US-Iran Ceasefire, Oil Slides

Bitcoin moved higher toward a $69,000 target after the United States and Iran agreed to a 60-day ceasefire to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. The agreement included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and markets reacted with lower oil prices and firmer equity futures.

U.S. WTI crude fell below $80 per barrel for the first time since mid-April. U.S. stock futures rose as investors priced a reduced geopolitical risk premium. Bitcoin reached local highs near $65,988 at the start of the week as traders adjusted positions.

Price charts show the $60,000 area and the 200-week simple moving average, near $62,000, holding as support. Some traders identified the 200-week exponential moving average, around $69,000, as a likely short-term squeeze target because of concentrated leveraged short positions. One trader wrote that Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed near the highs with little upper wick, favoring upward pressure this week. Other market participants warned that the pair could return to recent lows as it trades inside a range and emphasized the importance of maintaining the $60,000 support band.

Attention is also on the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, will preside over the Wednesday meeting. The CME Group FedWatch Tool showed roughly a 3.4% probability of a 25 basis-point cut at that session, and markets currently expect rates to remain unchanged. A portfolio manager commented that lower oil risk could affect inflation and complicate policy choices for the Fed.

Onchain data points to a change in large-holder behavior. Analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that coin days destroyed for exchange inflows fell from about 2.16 million to roughly 33,000, which the firm interpreted as long-term whale selling stopping. The firm’s contributor described an “aggressive bottom buy” around $61,000 that absorbed coins sold by weaker hands and established a support range between $60,000 and $61,500. CryptoQuant also noted that exchange reserves have declined.

Despite renewed buying by large holders, broader onchain demand metrics remained negative. CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric, the difference between new issuance and coins inactive for more than a year, stayed below zero. The firm’s head of research explained that negative apparent demand means inventory is falling faster than production, a pattern that has coincided with extended periods of weak investor interest in the past. CryptoQuant also reported falling open interest in Bitcoin futures and flagged the possibility of further selling or a final capitulation event.

U.S. markets will observe a shortened trading week because of the Juneteenth holiday on Friday. Traders said they will watch the 200-week moving averages, onchain supply metrics and futures positioning for clues on whether the current rally can sustain itself or if another pullback will occur.