Bitcoin cheaper than AI stocks as Fed hints hikes
Bitwise finds Bitcoin deeply discounted after its Mayer Multiple fell below 1.0. The Fed kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% and signalled possible hikes, which may curb new capital flows.
Bitwise found Bitcoin trading at a steep discount to AI-linked stocks after the cryptocurrency’s Mayer Multiple dropped below 1.0, a level the firm associates with long-term accumulation. The Mayer Multiple compares price to the 200-day moving average.
Bitwise contrasted Bitcoin’s trend-based valuation with AI-focused equities such as NVIDIA, which the firm said are trading at large premiums to their long-term trends. The asset manager flagged a pipeline of major capital raises tied to companies including SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, and estimated those events could attract more than $200 billion in investor demand.
The Federal Reserve left its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% at its meeting this week. The updated dot plot showed nine officials expecting at least one rate increase this year and six projecting two or more, shifting markets toward a higher-for-longer rate outlook. Bitcoin fell below $64,000 after the announcement; trading volumes increased during a rejection near $66,200, a pattern researcher Axel Adler Jr. linked to investors adjusting to the prospect of tighter policy.
On-chain metrics indicate lower participation in the current rally. CryptoQuant’s realized cap growth metric entered a bear-phase regime on Oct. 30, 2025. Its seven-day and 59-day moving averages were 13.9 and 19.1 on June 17, down from roughly 70 in the fourth quarter of 2025. Realized cap growth measures the pace at which new capital is committed to the Bitcoin network.
Market activity showed mixed responses after the Fed decision. One trader opened a $38.5 million short on Bitcoin using 30x leverage shortly after the announcement and held roughly $750,000 in unrealized profit as prices fell. Investor Jelle wrote on social media that the pullback below $64,000 represented a routine retest of support and added, “Hold here, and we likely see extended relief into $70k in the coming weeks. Big day ahead.”
Bitwise noted that elevated interest rates reduce available capital for speculative assets, which could limit inflows to Bitcoin even if its Mayer Multiple appears attractive. The firm highlighted the potential for large listings to absorb liquidity that might otherwise flow into cryptocurrencies.
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