Bitcoin Bulls Target $115K by Dec. 25 as $6B Options Split

Bitcoin bulls are positioned for a $115,000 settlement on Dec. 25 as $6 billion in options open interest for that expiry shows concentrated, divided bets. About 92% of the December exposure, roughly $5.5 billion, sits on a single exchange, where $1.85 billion of call options are struck at $115,000 or higher and about $1 billion of put options are struck at $55,000 or lower.

Since Bitcoin’s low for the year of $60,130 on Feb. 6, the token has gained about 33%, a price move that corresponds with increased bullish activity in the December contracts. Open interest includes directional wagers as well as multi-leg strategies placed before or after that rally.

Market records show that approximately half of the $6 billion in open interest is tied to long-shot strikes or neutral strategies used for hedging and spread trades. These instruments do not require a large price move to be profitable, and many positions can be structured to reduce payout at expiry.

Options pricing metrics report that put contracts trade at a roughly 9% premium relative to equivalent calls. Historical neutral conditions for the metric are around negative 6% to positive 6%. The current skew reflects higher costs for downside protection relative to upside exposure as measured by these contracts.

A practical pricing example from May 7 shows a buyer could pay about $2,202 for a single call that pays off if Bitcoin closes at $120,000 or higher on Dec. 25. That contract provides asymmetric upside exposure at a fixed upfront cost and is priced independently of owning the underlying asset.

Open interest totals include outright calls and puts as well as spreads, calendar trades and protective positions that can be hedged or closed before expiry. Because of these structures, headline open interest figures overstate the notional capital that will be directly exposed to a single price outcome on Dec. 25.

Derivatives traders monitor the December expiry for indications of market sentiment at year end. The large blocks of calls above $115,000 and puts at $55,000, together with the put-call skew, present a snapshot of where traders are placing conditional bets for the settlement date.

Options carry risks for buyers and sellers, and contract values change with volatility, time decay and underlying price moves. Positions recorded now can be adjusted or liquidated before Dec. 25, and the distribution of open interest does not determine the final price path for Bitcoin.