Bitcoin $5,000 from Bear Market Best-Buy Level

Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s realized price — the average price at which the circulating supply last moved on-chain — sits near $53,300. Bitcoin is trading less than 10% above that level.

The realized price has not been traded below since the end of the 2022 bear market. CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon wrote that past cycles included ‘a bleak period when Bitcoin fell below its realized price, and that has been the best Bitcoin investment opportunity.’

Market participants are monitoring two technical conditions tied to a potential trend reversal: a return below the realized price and sustained weekly closes under the 200-week moving average. Several weekly closes under the 200-week moving average began in recent weeks.

PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow models, wrote in early June that the market was ’50/50 on if February $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue.’ He added that available data pointed to a greater than 50% probability of lower prices, citing targets near a 200-week moving average around $61,000 or the realized price near $53,000, and later wrote that Bitcoin would ‘likely bottom below’ the realized price.

Market commentator Aaron Bennett wrote he would be surprised if Bitcoin did not test the realized price or briefly trade below it, noting that larger institutional holdings this cycle do not prevent a revisit of that zone.

CryptoQuant has argued that breaches of the realized price in prior cycles marked entry points for long-term investors, writing: ‘If that moment comes again, where price falls below the realized price, invest for the new cycle.’ Traders and analysts treat the realized price as an aggregate cost-basis marker and combine it with moving averages, exchange flows and derivatives positioning to assess whether current levels represent capitulation or consolidation.

Realized price is calculated by summing the price at which each coin last moved and dividing by the circulating supply, providing an estimate of the average on-chain purchase price across holders. Different realized-price measures can highlight cost bases for different investor cohorts.

Observers say some market participants view a dip to the realized price as a buying opportunity while others emphasize the difficulty of timing bottoms. Weekly closes relative to the 200-week moving average are being watched as an additional gauge of whether a structural bottom has formed, and analysts note on-chain indicators are one of several tools used to form market views.