Bitcoin 15% Below True Market Mean After June Selloff

Glassnode’s June 17 market report shows Bitcoin stabilized after a steep June selloff but remained about 15% below the firm’s True Market Mean of $77,200. The report placed spot near $65,600 at the time.

Short-term holders have not returned to profitability. The Short-Term Holder MVRV rose from 0.81 to 0.90 but stayed below the 1.0 break-even level. Glassnode estimated the cohort’s cost basis at roughly $72,600, leaving recent buyers with unrealized losses of about 10%. The 30-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stood at 0.53, indicating more realized losses than gains over the prior month.

Capital flows remain negative. Realized Cap fell 1.45% over the past 90 days to $1.07 trillion. The seven-day change narrowed to negative 0.18%, showing outflows have slowed but not turned positive.

Glassnode listed three measurable conditions it views as required before the market can be described as returning to a pre-bull phase: Bitcoin reclaiming the True Market Mean near $77,200, Short-Term Holder MVRV rising above 1.0, and Realized Cap showing a positive change on a 90-day basis. None of those indicators had been met in the June 17 report.

Market structure data showed some visible buy-side depth on exchanges. Binance order-book snapshots indicated buy-side liquidity exceeded resting sell orders by the widest margin in months after Bitcoin approached $60,000, suggesting stronger visible demand to absorb selling pressure during the recent weakness.

Glassnode defines the True Market Mean as the average acquisition price of actively transacted coins, treated as a threshold between bull and bear regimes. Short-Term Holder MVRV compares the current market value of coins held by recent buyers with the price those buyers paid. Realized Cap measures supply valued at the price coins last moved on-chain and is used to track aggregate capital flows over time.