Bernstein: Prediction Markets Could Hit $1 Trillion by 2030

Bernstein projects prediction-market trading volumes will reach $1 trillion by 2030, with sports wagers falling from about 62% of platform volume today to roughly 31% as institutional investors increase use of event contracts to hedge policy and political risk.

The projection appears in a note published Tuesday by Bernstein analysts, who expect institutional adoption rather than retail sports speculation to drive growth. Platform data shows sports account for about 42% of Polymarket volume and about 78% of Kalshi volume today.

Bernstein expects institutions to trade contracts tied to economic indicators, corporate outcomes and political events instead of focusing on sports. The analysts wrote that investors will seek direct exposure to discrete outcomes through event contracts.

The note added that event contracts remove the risk that a particular policy outcome does not match the performance of an unrelated hedging instrument, and broaden access to instruments that were previously limited to a small segment of the market.

Bernstein projects revenue from prediction markets will reach about $10.8 billion by 2030, up from an estimated $500 million in 2025. The firm cited platform fee changes as one source of revenue growth; Polymarket began charging fees on some markets in April.

Market structure is changing as trading firms and major market operators enter the sector. Jump Trading provided liquidity to Polymarket and Kalshi in exchange for small equity stakes. Susquehanna International Group has applied arbitrage and mispricing detection techniques to event contracts. Tradeweb formed a strategic partnership with Kalshi, and Intercontinental Exchange invested $1.6 billion in Polymarket to help distribution.

Regulatory battles have increased as states classify some prediction markets as gambling and seek to limit access. The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona and Connecticut arguing the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over certain wagers and seeking federal oversight of event contracts.

Sports partnerships and large betting events continue to draw public attention. Kalshi recorded $2.7 billion in sports wagers in a single week during the Masters tournament. FIFA signed a multi-year agreement with ADI Predictstreet to introduce prediction markets to fan engagement for the expanded 2026 World Cup, enabling forecasts on match outcomes, tournament statistics and key moments.

Prediction markets drew wide attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Bernstein’s analysts wrote that corporations and insurance companies are likely candidates to use event contracts as hedges against regulatory, policy and political outcomes.