Bernstein Sees $4T Tokenized Credit Upside for Figure

Bernstein reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Figure Technology Solutions and maintained a $67 price target in a Tuesday research note. The firm cited a roughly $4 trillion addressable market for tokenized credit as a key element of its outlook.

The $67 target implies about 67% upside from current levels, Bernstein said in the note, and the firm noted that Figure’s shares have risen nearly 10% over the past month.

Bernstein describes tokenization as the conversion of traditional loans into tradable onchain assets that can settle in real time. Its $4 trillion estimate covers total annual origination across mortgages, auto loans, home equity products and small-business loans that could move onchain.

Industry data cited in the note puts the current tokenized credit segment near $5.5 billion, a small fraction of Bernstein’s longer-term market estimate.

The research highlighted recent growth in Figure’s lending activity. Loan volumes reached $1.34 billion in April, up 108% year over year, marking the second consecutive month above $1 billion. Bernstein projected total loan volumes would rise to $16.5 billion by 2027, up from a forecasted $8.4 billion in 2025.

Bernstein noted Figure has been expanding beyond its roots as a HELOC originator into blockchain infrastructure and credit services that use artificial intelligence. The company has developed onchain loan products and settlement technology and is working on auto lending through its Hastra ecosystem. Those products are intended to connect tokenized loan assets with decentralized finance markets and secondary trading.

Other blockchain platforms are developing tokenized credit and real-world asset liquidity products aimed at linking institutional assets with DeFi liquidity pools.

The research pointed to risks, including adoption timelines, execution challenges and regulatory developments, which analysts and market participants continue to track.