Arkham launches Elo leaderboard; top trader 66.1% accuracy
On June 29, 2026 Arkham Intelligence launched Prediction Market Elo to rank Polymarket traders by forecasting accuracy rather than profit. GardenerCx leads with 66.1% across 2,512 markets.
Arkham Intelligence launched Prediction Market Elo on June 29, 2026. The tool ranks Polymarket traders by forecasting accuracy instead of profit or volume.
The system applies an Elo/MMR-style score used in chess and competitive gaming. A trader’s score rises when their predictions outperform the broader pool. Correct calls at lower odds add more points because calling a longshot is harder. Bet size and total capital are not included in the calculation.
Arkham wrote in its announcement: “Some traders consistently win on Polymarket, bet after bet. We’ve created prediction market performance ratings (Elo) on Arkham Intel to help you find them.”
GardenerCx held the top rating at 2,389. Arkham reports the account trades five-minute crypto up/down markets and posted a 66.1% win rate across 2,512 resolved crypto markets, a 47% return on investment, and $51,400 in realized profit on $110,700 in capital. Arkham earlier recorded a 64.3% win rate over 2,644 bets at the time of the feature’s announcement.
Second-ranked roberto73 had an Elo of 2,254, a 47.8% win rate across 2,835 soccer and FIFA World Cup markets and $177,800 in profit. Third-ranked Oliveira39 had a 43.5% win rate across 1,817 sports markets and $50,100 in profit.
Arkham’s PnL Top Traders tab shows different leaders when filtered by seven-day performance. blunttedge led with $8.3 million in profit and a 75% win rate across 1,027 trades. 1two1two posted $5.6 million and an 83.3% win rate across 2,435 trades. Swisstony logged $3.4 million in recent profit across 261,298 trades and held an Elo of 1,514, which Arkham notes places the account in the top 7% by accuracy.
Arkham released a broader Prediction Markets analytics suite in early May 2026. That suite included PnL leaderboards, trader profiles with position history and win-rate graphs, real-time trade feeds by category, and integration with an entity database of more than 3.5 billion address labels and over 800,000 verified entities. The Elo feature appears under the Rating tab at arkm.com/predictions/leaderboard.
Prediction market activity on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi rose through 2026. Arkham presents Elo as an alternative metric focused on forecasting accuracy rather than capital-based rankings.
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