Analysts Unmoved as Coinbase Falls About 30% This Year

Coinbase shares have slid roughly 30% this year. William Blair reduced its revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027 while maintaining an outperform rating, forecasting earnings to bottom in the second half of 2026 and to recover in 2027. Coinbase and Circle shares rose about 3–4% when the note was released.

William Blair cut its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and its 2027 revenue estimate by 13%. Adjusted EBITDA projections were lowered by 34% for both years. The firm expects total trading volume at Coinbase to fall about 44% this year to roughly $669 billion, then rise more than 32% in 2027. The note highlighted Coinbase’s Base layer-2 network, retail derivatives and prediction markets as revenue sources beyond spot trading; retail derivatives annualized above $200 million in the first quarter. The firm added that key risks appear reflected in current share prices and recommended investors remain involved. “We think investors should stay involved in Coinbase,” the note stated.

Not all analysts share the same near-term view. Piper Sandler reduced its price target to $155 from $170 and kept a neutral rating, noting prediction markets and perpetual futures as the main drivers of second-quarter activity and warning of increased investor focus on perpetual futures heading into the third quarter.

Market context: Bitcoin has fallen about 26% this year. Coinbase’s share price decline has tracked the cryptocurrency’s drop. Circle, which completed an initial public offering in June 2025, is down about 20% year-to-date.

Technical analysis shows a possible turning point for Bitcoin. John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator, identified a fractal “W” double-bottom pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart and said that a completed pattern would confirm a change in trend. Bollinger has disclosed a long Bitcoin position earlier this year and cautioned that prior bullish setups in the cycle had been invalidated by selling pressure.

On-chain metrics give mixed signals. Data from long-term holder behavior show capitulation peaked two weeks ago and has since declined. Analysts observed broad accumulation across wallets at the June lows, unwinding of derivative positions, thinning of long-term sellers and an easing of the options market’s fear premium. At the same time, firms and on-chain analysts note that sustained, spot-driven buying from new capital has not yet appeared, leaving the timing and strength of any recovery unclear.

William Blair’s base case places an inflection point in 2027, when it expects trading volumes and earnings to recover after the projected trough in late 2026.