Analysts Split on Whether Bitcoin Has Bottomed

Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, roughly half below its October 2025 high above $126,000. The rally that peaked in October was driven by inflows to spot exchange-traded funds, post-halving momentum and renewed institutional demand. Since then the market has declined from its record level and analysts are divided over whether a cycle bottom has been reached.

Several institutional desks, including Standard Chartered, report that ETF-related structural demand and growing long-term capital flows reduce the chance of a deeper drop and could mean a cycle low formed recently. Citibank adjusted its outlook on July 1, lowering a 12-month price target to $82,000 from $112,000 and noting a stronger correlation between Bitcoin and other risk assets as the market integrates with traditional financial flows.

Other research groups and money managers say a confirmed bottom has not yet appeared. Russell Thomson, chief investment officer at Hilbert Capital, expects prices to revisit the $56,000–$52,000 range that marked summer 2024 lows and potentially extend to $40,000–$45,000, levels he associates with earlier consolidation phases. He projects a broader cycle low could form around October 2026 but adds that changes in macro policy could move that timing. “Fed rate cuts and/or [the CLARITY Act] passing could put the bottom in earlier than that,” he said during a market briefing.

Galaxy Research’s base-case scenario outlines a potential slide to between $40,000 and $46,000 depending on liquidity and global macro conditions. Analysts point to the deeper integration of Bitcoin with macro liquidity as a factor that can amplify moves tied to broader equity and bond markets.

André Dragosch, head of research (Europe) at Bitwise, describes the current market as similar to a late-stage bear market, with indicators that suggest seller exhaustion and sentiment at lows comparable to the period after the 2022 market stress. Dragosch does not consider the cycle low confirmed but assesses that downside risks are narrowing. “I don’t think that we have seen the final bottom just yet, although we are probably very close,” he said.

Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix Exchange, frames the market shift in structural terms. He notes that approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 established a persistent institutional capital base and altered how Bitcoin competes for marginal liquidity against other global investment themes such as artificial intelligence and equities. Chen argues the question of a single, sharp bottom may be less relevant and that the market could spend an extended period building a more stable valuation range. “The wrong question is ‘when will Bitcoin bottom?’ The more important question is: ‘when will crypto once again become the most attractive destination for global risk capital?'” he says.

The market debate centers on how to define a cycle bottom in an environment influenced by ETF flows, macro liquidity and derivatives activity. As a result, price targets and timing vary across firms, with outcomes tied to liquidity conditions, policy decisions and institutional capital flows rather than a single on-chain signal.