Analysts Split on Possible May Bitcoin Sell-Off

Crypto analysts are divided over whether Bitcoin will fall in May as U.S. midterm years have coincided with past sell-offs. The debate has intensified while Bitcoin trades near $76,900 ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Analysts citing a recurring calendar pattern point to May 2018, when Bitcoin dropped from almost $10,000 to about $7,000, and May 2022, when it fell roughly 30% from around $40,000 to $28,500 before sliding to about $20,000 in June. Merlijn Enkelaar wrote on social media: “The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time.” Enkelaar added that a repeat could push prices to $33,000 despite recent regulatory and political developments.

Michaël van de Poppe described recent price action as consolidation after a roughly 40% rally and identified the $76,000 area as an important line of defense. He cautioned that if that level breaks, further declines toward lower boundaries are likely.

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, said $78,000 is a psychological threshold and warned that a sustained move below that level would raise the probability of a new capitulation phase, with bears showing strength.

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, argued that prior May declines followed specific shocks rather than calendar timing. He pointed to the fallout from Mt. Gox, China’s crackdown on initial coin offerings, Federal Reserve tightening, and the Terra and FTX collapses, stating, “The calendar didn’t cause those drawdowns — specific shocks did.” Ko noted changes in market structure, including spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption and progress on the CLARITY Act, which he said have broadened the buyer base and reduce the odds of 70% to 80% drawdowns. He added that a drop into the mid-$60,000s or high-$50,000s could occur under a major macro shock or an ETF outflow cascade, but that a return to $33,000 would likely require a genuinely systemic break.

Bitcoin traded near $76,900 at the time of the report, down about 5.6% over the prior seven days. Traders and investors are watching liquidity flows, ETF activity and legislative developments for potential triggers of inflows or outflows.

Institutional participation has increased since earlier cycles. The introduction of spot ETFs and growing corporate holdings have changed how liquidity and risk are distributed in Bitcoin markets, a factor analysts cite when weighing whether past calendar patterns can predict future price behavior.