Analyst: Bitcoin 77% chance of new record within a year

Network economist Timothy Peterson estimated a roughly 77% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high within 12 months if past price patterns repeat. Peterson’s analysis examined every occasion when Bitcoin’s drawdown from a prior peak narrowed from about 50% to about 35% and measured how often a new record followed within a year.

Peterson reported that seven of nine such instances in Bitcoin’s history were followed by a new high within 12 months. He published charts comparing the current price profile with similar recovery phases in prior cycles and summarized the frequency in a post on social media.

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in late February, extending its decline versus the $126,200 record beyond 50%. The price later recovered to roughly $81,000, which leaves it about 35% below the October 2025 peak, according to price data cited by Peterson.

Peterson highlighted the 2022 bear market as a recent comparable episode. On-chain data show that the maximum drawdown then exceeded 70% and narrowed to around a 35% gap by December 2023. A new record followed in March 2024, a sequence Peterson used as part of his comparison.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, offered a separate estimate based on comparisons of Bitcoin and gold and a market-to-GDP ratio known as the Buffett indicator. Sigel wrote on social media that “Bitcoin looks cheap” and said that if the Bitcoin-to-gold cross reached a level implied by current Buffett indicator values, the implied price would be about $160,000 per coin.

Peterson’s probability is conditional on historical patterns repeating and is not a guarantee of future price moves. He noted that market outcomes can change with different macroeconomic trends, policy decisions, and geopolitical events.

Drawdown refers to the percentage drop from a prior peak to a lower price. Peterson’s work focuses on instances when the drawdown narrowed from roughly 50% to 35% and the frequency with which those recoveries were followed by renewed all-time highs.

The analysis adds to ongoing discussion about Bitcoin’s near-term path and provides one statistical perspective among several methods market participants use to assess odds and potential price levels.