AI models assign low odds Satoshi’s 1.1M BTC will move

Twelve AI models, including ChatGPT 5.5, Claude Fable 5, Grok 4.3 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, were asked to use simple Bayesian scenario trees to estimate the chances that Satoshi Nakamoto’s roughly 1.1 million bitcoins will ever move and that his identity will be definitively revealed.

All models received the same prompt asking for three primary scenarios plus an “other” category that together total 100%, and then to convert those weightings into probabilities for coin movement and identity disclosure. Responses were limited to one paragraph and 100 words. Common scenario nodes included a deceased creator with inaccessible keys, a living individual committed to permanent anonymity, and a small group or collective that may control keys.

Estimates varied across models. ChatGPT 5.5 produced about a 20% chance of coin movement. Gemini 3.1 Pro placed movement odds under 5%. Grok 4.3 returned an estimated 8% chance the coins will move and a 14% chance the identity will be revealed. Deepseek’s output implied roughly a 5% chance of movement and about 8% for identity disclosure. Manus Lite gave a 3% movement probability and a 12% chance of identification. Microsoft Copilot’s weighted tree implied about a 12% chance the coins move and an 8% chance the identity is proven. Several models clustered toward low probabilities for both outcomes while a few produced higher or more divergent estimates.

Models based their calculations on verifiable facts such as long-term wallet inactivity dating to around 2010–2011 and the absence of any cryptographic proof linking real-world identities to those keys. Some responses also referenced the confirmed deaths of known early Bitcoin contributors as factual context. Uncertainties listed as speculative included private key access, motives, future leaks and possible coordinated actions by multiple parties.

One model summarized the evidence and speculation in a single sentence: “Dormancy of the coins since 2010 and absence of verified claims form the evidence-based foundation, whereas projections of future behavioral changes constitute speculation.”

The experiment reports probabilities conditional on the scenarios and weightings the models assigned. The models’ outputs therefore represent estimates tied to those assumptions rather than definitive forecasts.

Satoshi Nakamoto published Bitcoin’s white paper in 2008 and helped launch the network in 2009. Analysts estimate about 1.1 million bitcoins are associated with wallets active in Bitcoin’s early days. Large movement of those coins or proof of Satoshi’s identity would have implications for markets and legal questions, which explains why the holdings remain a focal point for researchers and observers.