AI economy could boost dollar stablecoin dominance

Two economists at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), Chengxu Fu and Xiaguo Huang, wrote in a recent analysis that U.S. dominance in AI infrastructure and payments could strengthen the dollar’s role through stablecoins.

The paper outlines two channels for that effect. First, if energy, data center services and AI compute are priced in dollars, firms that operate across borders will need more dollar funding to pay for those inputs. Second, the authors say software agents that manage logistics, inventory and treasury functions will need programmable settlement tools that can execute automated payments.

The report identifies dollar-pegged stablecoins as one ready option for programmable settlement because they combine a pegged value with digital programmability. The paper notes stablecoins are already available to settle automated transactions, while tokenized central bank digital currencies and other public digital money remain largely in development in many countries.

Fu and Huang describe a reinforcing loop in which more AI activity billed in dollars increases demand for dollar-linked programmable money, and wider use of those tokens increases demand for dollar-denominated collateral and liquidity.

A secondary financial effect outlined in the report is higher demand for high-quality assets to back stablecoin liabilities. The authors say that could raise demand for U.S. Treasuries used as collateral for growing stablecoin markets.

The paper targets policymakers in the ASEAN+3 group-Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Japan and South Korea-and recommends steps to limit reliance on a dollar-centered AI payment loop. The report calls for more regional data centers and the development of tokenized forms of local currencies to support automated commerce within national and regional markets.

The paper states, “Dollar-pegged stablecoins, in particular, could provide the programmable settlement that agentic commerce requires.” The authors add that which currency becomes standard for paying compute, energy and other infrastructure will shape demand for dollar liquidity and related financial instruments.