21shares pares 2026 crypto forecasts as institutions grow

Asset manager 21shares trimmed several of its 2026 crypto forecasts in a midyear outlook, citing weak prices, major DeFi security breaches and muted retail participation. The firm reported that institutional adoption of digital assets has strengthened.

The report stated that market infrastructure has advanced faster than asset prices, pointing to developments in exchange-traded funds, moves in stablecoin regulation, tokenization and prediction markets.

21shares projected that prediction market annual trading volume will exceed $100 billion this year.

The report highlighted Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle. ‘After peaking at around $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin pulled back sharply and has continued to trade in line with prior post-halving patterns,’ the analysts wrote, adding that institutional ownership has softened drawdowns but not altered the cycle.

21shares described consolidation among public companies holding crypto, noting many smaller treasury holders are trading below the value of their digital assets. The report also described consolidation across Ethereum layer-2 networks, with a few dominant rollups gaining market share while many smaller networks struggle to attract users and liquidity.

The firm reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $3 billion in net outflows this year, while total ETF holdings remain just above 1.25 million BTC, near an all-time high.

21shares credited regulatory clarity in the United States, citing the Securities and Exchange Commission’s generic listing standards as a factor in converting a backlog of ETF applications into new product launches beyond Bitcoin and Ether. The report noted Hyperliquid, a fund tracking a single asset, drew over $150 million in net inflows in under a month.

Ophelia Snyder, a 21shares co-founder who left after the company’s 2025 acquisition by FalconX, wrote that ‘the investor base is larger, more institutional, and more connected to the broader financial system,’ and that competing narratives, geopolitical developments and macroeconomic shifts now have greater influence on crypto pricing.

The midyear outlook adjusted several of 21shares’ 2026 targets downward. The firm wrote that stronger institutional participation has not been sufficient to meet some targets without improved price momentum and wider enterprise adoption.