XRP slides to $1.25, tests long-term trend line

XRP dropped to $1.25 on Tuesday after a broad market sell-off, erasing gains made since early February. Charting data shows the token opened the month just below the 50-month exponential moving average and at or slightly beneath a multi-year ascending trend line that has supported price since 2017.

Analyst Egrag Crypto wrote on a social platform that the market is “leaning heavily bearish” and noted that a return above the 50 EMA and the long-term trend line could create a large bear trap. Egrag referenced past episodes in 2020, 2023 and 2024 when price dipped below the trend line before recovering.

Other technical analysts outlined deeper downside paths if current support fails. One mapped a potential decline to $0.70–$0.90 before any major reversal. Another identified $1.26–$1.30 as a support zone bulls must defend to avoid a correction toward $0.94–$1.11.

Market watchers said a break below $1.27 could prompt a retest of the Feb. 6 low at $1.11 and the round-number support at $1.00. Traders have reassessed positions following the market-wide pullback and are watching those levels closely.

Seasonal patterns show June has been weak for XRP. Since 2014 the token closed lower in eight of 12 Junes, with average monthly returns near -5%. Larger declines occurred in bear years, including drops of about 23.8% in June 2018, 21.5% in June 2022 and 34.4% in June 2021, the latter linked to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s lawsuit against Ripple.

Market participants are split: some expect further downside through June if support levels fail, while others expect a rebound if key technical levels are reclaimed.