XRP Drops to 16-Week Low; $1 and $0.63 Targets in Focus

XRP fell to $1.26 on Thursday, its lowest level in more than 16 weeks, after the token broke below the lower trendline of a bear pennant pattern. The breach occurred at roughly $1.35 and opened a path toward a measured target near $0.63, a decline of about 50% from current prices.

The breakdown followed recent on-chain signals that had pointed to undervaluation in the $1.40–$1.50 range, including a falling market-value-to-realized-value ratio and rising activity on the XRP Ledger. Those metrics were overtaken by the technical breach on weekly and daily charts.

Technical levels flagged after the breakdown include short-term support at $1.27 and $1.11, with $1 identified as a key test. Analyst Egrag Crypto wrote on X that the structure turned “bearish” after the fall below $1.30 and listed targets of $1.27, $1.10 and a possible capitulation wick toward $0.88. Technical analyst ChartNerd wrote that, after the break of the $1.30 support, the path toward $1 is “sooner rather than later.”

Social sentiment has weakened alongside price action. Data from a market-intelligence provider show the ratio of positive to negative social mentions for XRP has fallen to about 1.1 to 1, the lowest level in roughly three weeks. The provider noted that periods of heavy fear on social media have sometimes been followed by price stabilization or short rebounds once early sellers have exited.

On-chain profit-and-loss indicators show rising investor distress. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is trading between the capitulation and fear zones, and more than 58% of XRP holders are currently holding at a loss at prevailing prices. Historical patterns from prior cycles indicate that a majority of holders being underwater has sometimes preceded further downside.

Traders are watching trading volume, order-book behavior and inflows to exchanges for signs that selling pressure is easing. If the $1.27 level fails, technical projections expect the token to test $1.11 and then the $1 handle. A sustained break below $1 would increase focus on the pennant’s measured move near $0.63.

Several analysts warned the bearish setup could extend into June if current momentum continues. A bear pennant is a continuation pattern that, when broken downward, often projects a target roughly equal to the prior decline that formed the pattern.

XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger. Its price is influenced by technical chart patterns and on-chain metrics such as MVRV and NUPL, along with trading activity across spot markets and exchanges.