Wintermute Links Polymarket and Kalshi with Two-Sided Liquidity

Wintermute, a London-based crypto market maker, confirmed it has been supplying two-sided liquidity on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, routing capital between the venues to tighten bid-ask spreads and reduce price impact for traders.

The firm disclosed the activity on Friday in a blog post that said it has been “quoting two-sided markets across event contracts on leading venues.” A person familiar with the matter identified Polymarket and Kalshi as two of the platforms where Wintermute has been active.

By posting both buy and sell quotes rather than taking directional positions, Wintermute aims to deepen order books and absorb larger trades that could otherwise move prices sharply. Market makers earn from the spread between buy and sell prices rather than by betting on event outcomes.

Wintermute reported it processes more than $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume. The firm described prediction-market liquidity as “early-stage” and emphasized the need for sustained two-sided participation to make these markets more reliable for real-time probability estimates.

Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, wrote that “for these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity. That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices.”

The activity creates a mechanical link between Kalshi and Polymarket by allowing capital to move dynamically to where orders are executed. Kalshi operates under a U.S. regulatory framework, while Polymarket’s primary venue is based offshore.

The announcement coincided with a regulatory development for Kalshi: on Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an order permitting Kalshi to offer perpetual futures in the U.S. tied to Bitcoin’s price.

Wintermute said its participation is intended to broaden how participants use prediction platforms, moving them beyond simple forecasting tools toward venues for trading event risk. Wintermute’s chief executive, Evgeny Gaevoy, previously indicated the firm planned an increased focus on U.S. markets.