Whale opens $22.3M 2x SPCX long as SPCX trades 30% up
A crypto whale opened a $22.3M 2x isolated long on SPCX, a synthetic SpaceX pre‑IPO contract trading near $175, showing about $1.15M unrealized profit.
On‑chain data show an address labeled 0x9cc1… opened a 2x isolated long on xyz:SPCX worth about $22.29 million. The position was entered near $168 and SPCX last traded around $175, leaving roughly $1.15 million in unrealized profit. Funding fees on the position total about $500 and the liquidation price is near $93.27, which would generate an estimated $9.4 million loss if reached.
SPCX is a synthetic pre‑IPO perpetual contract that trades on crypto derivatives venues such as Hyperliquid. At about $175, SPCX is roughly 30% above SpaceX’s IPO price of $135. SpaceX priced the IPO at $135 to raise about $75 billion by selling roughly 555.6 million shares, implying a pro forma valuation near $1.77 trillion and the Nasdaq ticker SPCX.
Other secondary markets show higher implied valuations. An IG International derivatives calculation implies a SpaceX valuation near $2.4 trillion. A prediction market assigns about 56% probability that SpaceX will close its first trading day with a market cap between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion.
Long‑run IPO data provide context on risks for buyers who enter after an initial rally. From 2020 to 2025, U.S. IPOs averaged about 30% first‑day gains, while companies that opened strongly tended to underperform broader markets by roughly 8.5 percentage points over the next three years. IPOs with trailing sales above $100 million and price‑to‑sales ratios above 40 averaged three‑year returns near -44.8%.
Recent listings have shown large swings after initial trading. A semiconductor company priced at $185 opened at about $350, closed its first day near $311 and later traded down to roughly $197. Other high‑profile listings also saw significant post‑debut adjustments, with lockup expirations contributing to additional selling pressure.
Several valuation estimates for SpaceX are below the IPO price. A Morningstar analyst places fair value near $780 billion. A valuation estimate from a NYU finance professor centers on $1.25 trillion to $1.3 trillion. An independent analyst using the name The Fundamental Investor posted that the stock could fall below the IPO price after an initial trading surge.
The whale’s position reflects use of synthetic pre‑IPO derivatives for early exposure to the listing. The 2x leverage and isolated margin increase potential gains and potential losses, and the position faces liquidation risk if prices fall toward the stated liquidation level.
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