Weak Spot Demand, ETF Outflows Push Bitcoin Toward Consolidation

Apparent demand for Bitcoin fell to -3,138 BTC, the lowest reading in four months, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers and the price slipped below $80,000. On-chain metrics place the model known as the true market mean at $78,300.

Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric shows demand has been negative since Dec. 22, 2025, with a brief improvement in late February before dropping to -3,138 BTC on Thursday. CryptoQuant’s weekly report wrote, “Bitcoin’s overall demand has flipped into net contraction,” and observed that spot apparent demand is contracting faster than in prior weeks.

Glassnode’s Week On-chain reported that aggregate spot cumulative volume delta across exchanges remained negative during the retreat toward the high-$70,000 range and that broad-based spot accumulation has not re-emerged. The same report recorded that the 30-day change in U.S. ETF holdings fell to its lowest level in nearly three months.

Bitcoin rose roughly 38% from a macro low near $60,000 to a peak around $82,800. Glassnode describes the true market mean as the average acquisition cost of actively traded Bitcoin supply and wrote that reclaiming that level is “a necessary but not sufficient condition for a structural transition.”

Glassnode referenced a previous episode when price consolidated around the true market mean for more than six months before a strong rally followed.

Market technicians and analysts have highlighted fading momentum, declining retail participation and aggressive selling in futures markets. Some analysts model downside scenarios near $65,000 over the coming weeks.

Traders are monitoring whether spot demand and ETF holdings stabilize around the true market mean. On-chain metrics such as spot cumulative volume delta and ETF holding trends are being used to assess short-term flows and positioning.