VanEck’s Matthew Sigel: Bitcoin could reach $1M in five years

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, projected Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years during a television interview on Wednesday.

Sigel compared Bitcoin’s adoption curve to that of the video game industry, saying usage broadened from younger players to a wider demographic: “It’s going to be like the video game industry, where 30 years ago it was just kids playing video games, now Elon Musk plays video games.”

The forecast aligns with VanEck’s longer-term model, which estimates Bitcoin could reach about $2.9 million by 2050.

Sigel warned Bitcoin is a highly cyclical asset that can experience sharp price swings. “There are no bailouts in Bitcoin, so it’s going to be cycles along the way,” he warned, and he said central bank purchases for reserves represent a “mega trend” even as price moves remain volatile.

On near-term market dynamics, Sigel pointed to a rising correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq at its highest level in five years, and suggested the recent rally reflects broader macroeconomic factors rather than speculative excess. “What keeps us encouraged even at the current levels is that we’re not seeing the froth in the derivatives markets,” he observed, adding that much of the recent advance appeared driven by short covering and that overall investor positioning remains relatively bearish.

Sigel’s projection joins a range of institutional estimates. ARK Invest’s 2030 targets span roughly $300,000 in a bear case, $710,000 in a base case and $1.5 million in a bull case. Other firms and industry figures have also published bullish scenarios for Bitcoin’s future value.

Some prominent investors remain skeptical. Ray Dalio has questioned Bitcoin’s ability to scale into a global reserve asset given regulatory limits and sovereign currency dynamics. Peter Schiff has argued Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and is unlikely to displace traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.

Forecasts for Bitcoin vary widely, and the asset has a history of significant volatility and periodic large price swings.