Trump names Kevin Warsh as pick for Federal Reserve chair after market odds surge

Trump wrote that Warsh previously served as a Federal Reserve governor, is a Hoover Institution fellow and Stanford Graduate School of Business lecturer, and works as a partner at Duquesne Family Office alongside Stanley Druckenmiller. Warsh would still need Senate confirmation before beginning a four year term and replacing current chair Jerome Powell, whose term is scheduled to end in May.

The announcement followed a rapid shift in prediction markets. On Polymarket, traders priced Warsh odds near 95% late on 29 January 2026 after the probability had been around 39% earlier in the day. Kalshi odds also moved above 90% over the same period.

Warsh has drawn attention from digital asset markets for past comments on bitcoin and for earlier ties to the crypto sector. At a Hoover Institution event in July 2025, Warsh described bitcoin as an asset that can inform policymakers and argued it is not a substitute for the dollar. He has also been linked to the industry through early involvement in an algorithmic stablecoin project, Basis, and through advisory and investor roles with crypto index manager Bitwise. The prior record also includes support for central bank digital currency frameworks, a topic Trump has opposed.

Warsh has been viewed by some observers as a monetary policy hawk based on his time at the Fed and public comments focused on inflation risks. Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong wrote that Warsh is not a soft choice on inflation. Trump had been reported to be considering other candidates including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder.