Polymarket odds jump as Kevin Warsh emerges as Trump pick for Fed chair

On Polymarket, Warsh odds rose to 93% late on 29 January 2026 from 39% earlier in the day. His implied probability on Kalshi climbed to 94%, according to the platforms.

The move followed media reports that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate Warsh. CNBC reported that the shortlist is believed to include National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder alongside Warsh.

Warsh, 55, served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He is a Hoover Institution fellow and a former Morgan Stanley banker. In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece published in 2018, Warsh described bitcoin as a potential sustainable store of value similar to gold.

Market commentators offered mixed views on how a Warsh nomination would be received. Economist and crypto trader Alex Kruger wrote on X that Warsh is viewed as an inflation hawk, while adding that Rieder and Hassett would be the more bullish candidates for risk assets in the near term. James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington Altus Private Wealth, wrote that Warsh could combine credibility with flexibility on rate cuts. Renaissance Macro Research wrote on X that Warsh has been hawkish for most of his career and warned that recent dovish rhetoric could be situational.

As GNcrypto wrote on 29 January 2026, the Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on 28 January 2026 after three late 2025 cuts, while Chair Jerome Powell said tariff effects are already showing up in goods inflation. The report noted that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a quarter point cut, and that Powell warned the U.S. budget deficit path is unsustainable and declined to discuss his plans after his chair term ends in May.