Trump: Gas ‘way down,’ but U.S. average hits $4.52

President Donald Trump told reporters on May 8 that gas prices had fallen “very substantially” and were “way down.” AAA data shows the U.S. national average for regular unleaded stood at $4.52 per gallon on May 10.

AAA and Energy Information Administration data show retail gasoline has risen since January 2026. At Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, the national average was about $3.05 to $3.20 per gallon. Prices fell to about $2.81 in January 2026, then moved higher to a March monthly average of $3.64 and roughly $4.10 in April. In early May the national average crossed roughly $4.45 to $4.58, with the most recent week adding about 25 cents.

Compared with May 2025, when regular gasoline averaged about $3.14 to $3.26 per gallon, the current national average represents an increase of more than $1.40 per gallon.

The primary factor affecting prices is fighting tied to U.S.-Iran tensions that disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and removed an estimated 20% of global oil supply from markets. Brent crude passed $100 per barrel in May 2026 and West Texas Intermediate traded in the mid-$90s. The Brent-WTI spread widened to roughly $5 to $12 per barrel as higher shipping costs and altered supply routes raised premiums.

The Energy Information Administration projects Brent could peak near $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 before easing if tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are resolved. Retail gasoline prices typically lag crude by one to four weeks, so changes at the pump generally follow moves in wholesale crude with a delay.

The administration has taken steps to relieve supply pressure, including releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and temporary waivers of the Jones Act to facilitate fuel movement between U.S. ports. Trump has repeatedly offered forward-looking assurances, saying prices will “come crashing down” once the fighting ends and at times predicting post-conflict pump prices could fall toward $2 per gallon.

Economists note presidents have limited influence on short-term retail gasoline prices, which are determined by crude markets, refinery margins, taxes and distribution costs. AAA and EIA weekly retail reports show no week-over-week decline in the period Trump referenced; month-over-month figures rose by about 40 cents and year-over-year prices increased by more than $1.40.