Traders Ramp Up Bearish Bets on Ethereum After $500M ETF Outflows
Prediction markets put 63% odds on Ethereum sliding to $1,500 after about $500 million left ETFs; ETH trades near $2,057.
Market bettors increased bearish wagers on Ethereum after roughly $500 million left Ethereum exchange-traded funds over an 11-day net outflow streak. On the Myriad prediction market, the probability that ETH will fall to $1,500 rose to 63%, up about 13 percentage points over the past week as the token continued to slide. Ethereum was trading near $2,057, down about 0.8% in 24 hours and more than 10% over the past month.
Myriad, a prediction market platform, shows users favoring a near-term descent to $1,500 rather than a rebound toward $3,000. The ETF outflow figures come from analytics provider Farside, which recorded the roughly $500 million of net redemptions during the 11-day period.
Institutional activity showed mixed signals. BitMine Immersion Technologies purchased about $230 million worth of ETH last week, increasing its reported holdings to more than $11 billion. That accumulation did not produce immediate net inflows into Ethereum ETFs or an immediate price recovery.
Other markets show different timelines. Predictors on Polymarket assign roughly 51% odds that Ethereum will touch $1,500 at some point in 2026, and give lower probabilities for higher milestones: about 26% for $3,500 and 16% for $4,000.
Ethereum reached an all-time high of $4,946 in August and is now about 59% below that peak. For comparison, Bitcoin sits roughly 40% below its record above $126,000 set in October.
Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, commented, “We are in the depths of a bear market affecting almost every crypto asset, Ethereum included. Still, Ethereum maintains a large share of the stablecoins and tokenized assets markets, and financial institutions continue to build on Ethereum. We expect Ethereum to rerate higher when the crypto market turns the corner and emerges from the bear market.”
Market participants cited the broader crypto downturn as a driver of sentiment and ETF flows while noting continued institutional accumulation and the network’s use for stablecoins and tokenized assets.
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