Traders Bet on Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Disruption

Traders are betting on extended disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after vessel movements remained at a fraction of normal levels following a ceasefire. Brent crude has risen above $100 a barrel and several prediction markets put likely normalization into late May or June.

The crisis began on Feb. 28 when coordinated strikes targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait closed to vessels bound for the U.S., Israel and allied ports. Tanker traffic collapsed by more than 90% and Brent briefly neared $126 a barrel during the initial shock.

A ceasefire announced on April 8 produced a one-day price drop, but shipping did not return. Vessel-tracking footage shows tankers attempting to exit the waterway and reversing course. The global shipping association BIMCO advised ships to avoid the area, citing an uncleared mine threat; BIMCO’s chief security officer described the strait as “not declared safe for transit at this point.”

Tehran has alternated between limited reopenings and new restrictions. Iranian authorities imposed tolls of about $1 per barrel and reportedly collected up to $2 million per vessel in Bitcoin, Chinese yuan and USDT. On April 18 Iran reimposed passage limits, citing a U.S. port blockade. Current traffic remains below 5% of pre-crisis volumes.

Prediction markets have tracked the disruption. On Polymarket the odds that traffic returns to normal by April 30 were about 28%, rising to roughly 61% for May 31 and about 70% for June 30. On Myriad, a market assessing crude direction assigns a 63.2% probability that Brent will reach $120 versus 36.8% that it will fall to $55. A separate Myriad question gives about a 61.8% chance that average daily transits will exceed 15 ships before May; that probability swung widely in early April.

Crypto trading venues handled large volumes tied to the disruption. Oil-linked perpetual futures on the DeFi platform Hyperliquid processed roughly $991 million in 24-hour volume during peak tension, while a major centralized exchange recorded about $75,000 over the same period. Blockchain analysis identified six suspected insider accounts that collectively made about $1.2 million betting on U.S. strikes on Iran; Senator Chris Murphy expressed concern about those trades.

The economic exposure is substantial. The Strait of Hormuz moves roughly 20% of global oil and a comparable share of liquefied natural gas. Dallas Federal Reserve research published in March estimates that a full-quarter closure could subtract about 2.9 percentage points from annualized global GDP growth in Q2 2026.

Market-resolution rules add another technical factor. The Polymarket contract tied to Strait traffic uses IMF Portwatch data and requires a seven-day moving average of at least 60 vessel arrivals to resolve to “Yes.” Current arrivals remain well below that threshold.

For now, shipping for most commercial tankers is effectively halted, oil prices are elevated, and prediction markets and forecasting platforms assign higher probabilities to gradual operational improvement into late May or June.