Traders Bet $100M That Bitcoin Stays Below $85,000 in May
Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad logged over $100 million in bets that bitcoin will remain under $85,000 in May 2026; Polymarket shows a 79% chance BTC stays below $75,000.
Prediction-market traders placed more than $100 million across Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad on where bitcoin will trade in May 2026 and in later windows. The largest single market by volume was Polymarket’s May price contract, which recorded $21.47 million in trading.
Polymarket’s May market prices the outcome that bitcoin trades below $75,000 at $0.79, implying a 79% probability that BTC will fall below that level at any time between 12:00 AM ET on May 1 and 11:59 PM ET on May 31. The same contract places a 23% probability on BTC dipping below $70,000 and a 10% probability on trading above $85,000; outcomes above $90,000 or below $60,000 each hold 2% or less. Polymarket resolves using Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs or lows during the contract window.
Polymarket also hosts a $150,000-by-deadline market with $18.4 million in volume that prices a 7% chance BTC reaches $150,000 by Dec. 31, 2026 and a 1% chance by June 30, 2026. A broader Polymarket all-time-high market covering 34 price targets through Dec. 31, 2026 has collected $37.19 million in volume; brackets for prices above $80,000 and $90,000 show 100% probability because those levels were reached within the tracking window, while the $1,000,000 target holds about a 1% probability.
Kalshi’s bitcoin markets have drawn substantial activity. The platform’s $150,000 series (ticker KXBTCMAX150) has $33.89 million in volume and offers three timeframes: before August 2026 (about 1% probability), before September 2026 (about 4%) and before January 2027 (about 11%). Kalshi determines threshold crossings using the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index trimmed mean, which removes the top and bottom 20% of values within each 60-second window. Kalshi’s end-of-2026 price market has $23.74 million in volume and currently forecasts a settlement price near $83,000 at the contract close on Jan. 1, 2027. A separate Kalshi contract asking whether bitcoin will hit $75,000 before $100,000 shows Yes contracts trading at $0.94, indicating an 85% market price for the $75,000-first outcome.
Myriad’s binary market asking whether bitcoin will hit $84,000 or $55,000 first has $172,000 in volume and assigns a 76.7% probability to the $84,000 outcome. That market has no expiration date and resolves when one level is reached. Myriad uses Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle close prices via TradingView and says it will validate the final result within 24 hours provided Binance is operational.
Settlement mechanics differ by platform. Polymarket accepts only Binance one-minute candles for immediate resolution during the relevant windows. Kalshi applies a 60-second trimmed mean and projects payouts roughly an hour after market close. Myriad uses TradingView one-minute closes and resolves open-ended first-to-hit contests. Each market’s listed data source and resolution rule determine how and when a price threshold triggers a payout.
Combined trading volume across these markets exceeded $100 million as of May 19, 2026.
The material on GNcrypto is intended solely for informational use and must not be regarded as financial advice. We make every effort to keep the content accurate and current, but we cannot warrant its precision, completeness, or reliability. GNcrypto does not take responsibility for any mistakes, omissions, or financial losses resulting from reliance on this information. Any actions you take based on this content are done at your own risk. Always conduct independent research and seek guidance from a qualified specialist. For further details, please review our Terms, Privacy Policy and Disclaimers.
Articles by this author
