Strategy Moves 411 BTC to Coinbase Prime; Polymarket 84% Odds

Strategy shifted 411.48 BTC, worth about $30.3 million, to Coinbase Prime on May 29, according to on-chain trackers.

On-chain data show it was the company’s first direct deposit to an exchange-linked custody platform since 2024.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, with about 843,738 BTC on its balance sheet. The transfer came during a week of price weakness for bitcoin. Polymarket’s decentralized prediction market assigns an 84% probability that the company will sell bitcoin by Dec. 31, 2026.

Large holders sometimes move coins to exchange custody for reasons other than selling, including re-custodying, using coins as collateral, internal rebalancing or settling obligations. The deposit alone does not confirm a sale.

Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, wrote on May 28 that the situation had “gotten out of hand,” pointing to roughly $15 billion in outstanding perpetual preferred stock and about $1.5 billion in annual dividend obligations tied to those instruments.

Strategy has made more than 20 consecutive dividend distributions since early 2025. Executive chairman Michael Saylor has recently suggested selling a fraction of the company’s bitcoin to help service dividend payments, a departure from his prior “never sell” stance.

Analysts warn that converting significant amounts of bitcoin to cash could add selling pressure to the market and affect prices. A large corporate sale could also influence Strategy’s ability to meet future dividend obligations.

For now, the 411.48 BTC on Coinbase Prime is a transfer, not a confirmed trade. Whether it results in a sale will depend on bitcoin price movements and the company’s dividend coverage; Polymarket traders are currently pricing a sale as more likely than not.