Standard Chartered: Bitcoin bottom may be $59K; crypto winter over
Standard Chartered’s digital assets head says bitcoin’s cycle low may be $59,000 after a 53% drop from a $126,000 peak and calls an end to the crypto winter, citing ETF flows, oil and the SpaceX IPO.
In a June 12 research note, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, wrote that bitcoin’s cycle low may be $59,000 after a 53% decline from a $126,000 peak and that the crypto winter has ended.
Kendrick identified several catalysts behind the view, including flows into and out of bitcoin ETFs, weaker oil prices and the planned SpaceX initial public offering. The note linked a G7-related U.S.-Iran peace development to potential downward pressure on oil and U.S. Treasury yields and said some ETF holders sold bitcoin exposure to raise cash for the SpaceX IPO.
The note set out three markers the team would like to see to confirm a sustained rebound: MicroStrategy announcing additional bitcoin purchases, a return to net positive flows into bitcoin ETFs, and continued declines in oil prices. Kendrick wrote: “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle. That would be $59K for BTC (53% down from $126K high).”
The June note represented a shift from Standard Chartered’s February research, which had lowered near-term forecasts and warned bitcoin could fall toward roughly $50,000 and ethereum toward about $1,400 before recovering later in 2026. In February the bank trimmed its end-2026 targets to $100,000 for bitcoin and $4,000 for ethereum from prior targets of $150,000 and $7,500.
Standard Chartered left its longer-term 2030 forecasts unchanged at $500,000 for bitcoin and $40,000 for ethereum and kept targets for solana and XRP at $2,000 and $28. The research team also reduced forecasts for 2027 through 2029 and said that once lows are reached it expects the asset class to recover through the rest of 2026.
The June note combines macro analysis and market-structure observations, saying lower oil and yields could reduce dollar pressures and risk-off flows, while the behavior of ETF investors and large institutional holders will indicate whether demand returns. Kendrick closed the note with: “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”
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