Rising U.S. yields drive $1B out of spot Bitcoin ETFs; BTC dips
10-year Treasury yield hit 4.63% as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1 billion in net outflows and Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 while crypto liquidations exceeded $672 million.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.63% on Sunday night, its highest level since early 2025. The yield is about 70 basis points higher than before the Iran conflict began. Market pricing puts the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026 at roughly 2%, and U.S. mortgage rates moved toward 7%.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1 billion in net outflows for the week ending May 15, according to SoSoValue. That followed $622.75 million of inflows the prior week and was the largest weekly withdrawal since the week of Jan. 30, when roughly $1.49 billion left the funds, Alex Thorne, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, noted.
The outflows coincided with price pressure across crypto markets. Bitcoin traded near $76,770 at one point, briefly below $77,000. More than $672 million in crypto positions were liquidated on exchanges during the period, based on market tracker data.
Diego Martin, CEO of Yellow Capital, described the transmission from geopolitical events to crypto: “They hit Treasury yields, which hit risk appetite, which hits ETF flows, which hits Bitcoin.” He warned a break below $77,000 while perpetual swap open interest remains elevated could force rapid deleveraging and reopen the possibility of a retest of $70,000.
Georgii Verbitski, a derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, linked Bitcoin’s near-term path to the AI-driven equity rally and cautioned that if that rally loses momentum, Bitcoin could face a sharper decline because demand at current levels appears limited.
Users on the prediction market Myriad lowered the probability that Bitcoin’s next major move will be a rally to $84,000, cutting the odds from about 89% earlier in the week to roughly 74%.
Rising Treasury yields make fixed-income returns relatively more attractive and increase borrowing costs, which can reduce appetite for speculative positions. ETF structures allow rapid institutional entry and exit; when flows reverse, net selling can amplify price moves in the underlying asset.
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