Prediction Markets Top Onchain Gambling at $36.6B in Q1 2026

Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs reported that prediction markets recorded $36.6 billion in volume in the first quarter of 2026, while onchain gambling reached $14 billion. The figures were published in a report released on Wednesday.

TRM Labs noted that both categories expanded rapidly in 2025. Annual volumes for 2025 were $54 billion for prediction markets and $51 billion for onchain gambling. Quarterly wagering on gambling platforms reached an all-time high of $15 billion in Q4 2025 and held near that level at $14 billion in Q1 2026.

The report said neither sector retraced with the wider crypto market downturn that began in 2025. A TRM Labs spokesperson described the gambling volumes as “sticky and expanding activity of a loyal user base,” and added that steady customer activity can insulate an industry from market pullbacks.

TRM Labs outlined structural differences between the two categories. Prediction platforms operate as peer-to-peer markets for binary outcomes, while gambling sites function more like traditional casinos with platforms setting odds and maintaining a house edge. The report identified example platforms in each group and said both types increasingly use shared stablecoin infrastructure.

The firm highlighted differing financial crime risk profiles. Prediction markets have faced scrutiny over insider trading, while gambling platforms carry higher exposure to money laundering. The report stated, “Gambling services and prediction markets carry distinct inherent financial crime risks, and firms should calibrate controls accordingly.”

TRM Labs examined user behaviour on gambling platforms from January 2022 through March 2026 and found more than 2 million personal wallets interacted with wagering services. The report divided users into five cohorts. “Dabblers” made five or fewer transactions and typically stopped within a month. “Casual Bettors” averaged 18 transactions across eight active days. “Event Chasers” returned for major sporting events. “Daily Grinders” wagered on at least 30% of their active days. “High Rollers” were the highest-value group.

High Rollers averaged $13,558 per bet and $378,000 in lifetime gambling volume. They represented 6.3% of personal gambling wallets but accounted for 91.8% of personal-wallet gambling volume since 2022. Despite that concentration, TRM Labs reported faster growth among lower-frequency bettors: monthly volume for Casual Bettors rose from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million by March 2026, and Daily Grinders’ volume increased twelvefold.

The report recommends that operators and regulators factor in concentration risk and changing user composition when setting compliance and monitoring strategies.