Prediction Markets Hit $2B; Spain, France Joint Favorites

Polymarket and Kalshi have together drawn more than $2 billion in volume on markets for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner. Polymarket’s winner contract has generated about $1.9 billion in volume since it opened on July 2, 2025. Kalshi’s equivalent has added roughly $132 million, pushing the combined total past $2 billion in the days before the tournament begins.

On Polymarket, Spain’s “Yes” shares traded around 16.5 cents on the afternoon of June 10, implying a 16.5% chance of winning, while France traded near 16.1 cents. Kalshi showed Spain at about 17.4% and France at 16.1%. England and Portugal held low double-digit probabilities on the platforms; Argentina and Brazil were lower on the board, near single digits on Polymarket.

Traditional sportsbooks showed similar pricing on June 10. Spain was listed between about +450 and +480 at major books, an implied win probability near 18%, and France between roughly +475 and +550. Public wagering had moved some lines in recent days: Portugal shortened on public action while England and Brazil drifted at several books.

The tournament opens June 11 with Mexico versus South Africa at 3:00 p.m. ET and Korea Republic against Czechia at 10:00 p.m. ET. On Polymarket, Mexico opened as the heaviest single-match favorite on the first day, trading at about 70 cents versus South Africa’s 11 cents; that match had drawn $1.86 million in volume. The Korea–Czechia market was tighter, with Korea at about 37 cents, Czechia at 34 cents and the draw at 32 cents, totaling $1.07 million in volume.

Friday’s slate included Canada versus Bosnia-Herzegovina at 3:00 p.m., where Canada traded with an implied 54% chance, and the United States versus Paraguay at 9:00 p.m., where the U.S. was near even at 50 cents, Paraguay at 23 and the draw at 29. The U.S. match had attracted $565,840 in bets on Polymarket. Across the opening fixtures, Polymarket’s total-goals markets leaned toward the under: the “Under 2.5 goals” outcome carried roughly a 57%–59% implied probability in each game. Handicap lines showed Mexico -1.5 priced near 41 cents and South Africa +1.5 near 60 cents.

The 2026 World Cup is expanded to 48 teams in 12 groups. The top two teams in each group plus the eight best third-place teams advance to a 32-team knockout bracket. The tournament runs through July 19, with the final scheduled at MetLife Stadium in the New York/New Jersey area.