Polymarket opens retail access to 1,600 unicorns via Nasdaq data

Polymarket launched prediction markets tied to private company performance using Nasdaq Private Market transaction data. The first markets went live on Polymarket today and will resolve using Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) verified transaction records. The offering covers about 1,600 private companies classified as unicorns with a combined value above $5 trillion.

Under an exclusive agreement, NPM will supply the institutional-grade data that determines outcomes for all private-company markets on Polymarket. Markets will settle on events such as valuation milestones, IPO timing and secondary-market transactions.

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s founder and CEO, said ‘Prediction markets are one of the most powerful tools we have for democratizing access to financial information and opportunity.’

Nasdaq Private Market has handled secondary sales and will anchor the new markets with its price and transaction data. Tom Callahan, Nasdaq Private Market’s CEO, noted the platform has executed nearly $80 billion in secondary liquidity across more than 1,000 company-sponsored programs and serves over 200,000 eligible employee shareholders and investors. ‘When retail participants enter any market, high-integrity data matters,’ he added.

Rodolfo Sanchez, NPM’s vice president of data, said NPM will provide verified pricing and transaction records to resolve markets while Polymarket trading will create a visible, real-time signal about private company performance that institutional clients can observe alongside NPM’s transaction-based pricing.

One of the earliest live markets tracks Anthropic’s private valuation through Dec. 31, 2026, with valuation tiers between $600 billion and $3 trillion. That market had about $12,300 in trading volume at initial reporting. Prices implied probabilities of 88% for a $1 trillion valuation, 80% for $1.1 trillion, 32% for $1.5 trillion, 18% for $2 trillion and 10% for $3 trillion.

The Anthropic market will resolve using Anthropic’s NPM Price data. If NPM records a listed valuation before the deadline, the outcome will settle as Yes. NPM’s delayed data release sets the final resolution date at Jan. 4, 2027. An IPO or direct listing will also count toward resolution using public market capitalization data. If an acquisition ends Anthropic’s independence, the outcome will be locked and settle based only on valuations recorded before the deal closes.

Polymarket said it is the world’s largest prediction market platform and plans to roll out additional private-company markets. Markets that resolve on Nasdaq Private Market data will be anchored by verified, transaction-based records.