Polymarket rules ‘No’ despite Strategy selling 32 BTC

A Polymarket event on whether Strategy sold Bitcoin by May 31 was resolved as ‘No’ after a second dispute cycle closed at 00:34 UTC on Thursday. Blockchain records show 607 participants voted, with 98.6% casting ballots to settle the contract as ‘No’ and 1.4% voting ‘Yes’.

Strategy later disclosed a sale of 32 BTC dated between May 26 and May 31 in a filing submitted after the market’s deadline. Polymarket said no on-chain data, credible reporting or information confirmed a Strategy sale within the market’s defined time window, and that confirmation disclosed outside the market’s time frame does not qualify for reversal.

More than $80 million was wagered on the market while it was open. The dispute drew attention to Polymarket’s token-weighted resolution system, where votes are weighted by UMA token holdings. Blockchain wallet borntoolate.eth provided the largest vote, holding about 3.11 million UMA, followed by a wallet linked to Kevin Chan at roughly 1.53 million UMA. Historical vote records show borntoolate.eth netted over $299,000 from dispute rounds and the Kevin Chan-linked wallet netted more than $370,000.

Traders on both sides questioned the decision to base the outcome on the timing of public confirmation rather than on when the sale occurred. One trader reported losing about $500,000 on a position tied to the event. Galaxy Research posted that “Prediction markets should price what happens, not how the oracle will reinterpret rules after the fact,” and disclosed it held a financial position and bought ‘Yes’ shares to hedge. The firm outlined measures including fixed listing criteria, deterministic resolution for verifiable events, and structural changes ahead of regulatory review.

Critics pointed to earlier disputed resolutions, including an event about a mineral agreement tied to Ukraine that was resolved ‘Yes’ after dispute rounds although the agreement was signed on April 30. Some users alleged whale manipulation and governance failures in that case. Separately, nine members of the U.S. House requested that the Federal Trade Commission investigate how prediction markets advertise to customers and present themselves to regulators.

Polymarket’s dispute mechanism places final resolution authority with UMA token voters and relies on on-chain evidence and credible reporting tied to a defined market window. Opponents said that approach can allow large token holders to determine outcomes when relevant facts emerge after a market’s official period.