Polymarket Falls as Kalshi Gains Share in April Trading
Polymarket’s April volume fell 8.9% to $10.2 billion; Kalshi’s rose 13% to $14.8 billion, Dune Analytics shows.
Monthly trading volume at Polymarket declined about 8.9% in April to $10.2 billion, its first month-to-month drop since last August, according to Dune Analytics. Rival Kalshi reported roughly $14.8 billion in April trading, an increase of about 13% from March. Combined volume across major prediction markets rose to about $29.8 billion in April from $26.5 billion in March, a 12.4% gain.
Dune’s figures show Polymarket and its U.S.-focused application produced just over $10.2 billion in April, down from more than $11.2 billion in March. Kalshi’s activity increased to roughly $14.8 billion in April, expanding its share of overall sector volume as total market activity grew.
Polymarket left the U.S. market in 2022 under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company relaunched a dedicated app for U.S. customers in December 2025 that is separated from its global exchange and does not share liquidity with the main platform.
U.S. lawmakers and state officials have increased scrutiny of prediction markets. In March, Senator Elizabeth Warren and more than 40 members of Congress wrote to the CFTC urging the agency to treat event contracts as swaps within its jurisdiction and to ensure federal employees understand restrictions on insider trading in these markets. In April, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed lawsuits against Kalshi, Polymarket and other operators, alleging violations of the state’s sports betting laws.
New entrants and products have entered the sector in recent weeks. AI-native platform Prophet launched its first live trading tranche in April with an AI model acting as a counterparty using real capital. Financial technology firm MoonPay introduced an AI tool for developing prediction-market trading strategies in early May.
April marked Polymarket’s first monthly decline since August. Regulators, lawmakers and state attorneys general have focused on markets tied to war, energy prices and other geopolitically sensitive events, citing concerns about potential insider trading and consumer protections.
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