Onchain Indicators Find XRP 30-Day MVRV at -47%
30-day MVRV at -47%, MVRV Z-score near zero and a spike in XRP Ledger transactions. Price trades in a weekly falling wedge with a measured breakout target near $3.10.
Onchain and chart data show XRP’s 30-day market value to realized value (MVRV) at -47%, the MVRV Z-score near zero and a large increase in XRP Ledger transaction counts in April. XRP is trading around $1.30–$1.50, about 64% below its July 2025 multi-year high.
Santiment posted that the 30-day MVRV at -47% is the lowest reading since December 2020 and noted such levels have historically aligned with accumulation zones and market bottoms. Santiment added that MVRV readings tend to normalize over time.
Glassnode data indicate the MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero. Glassnode’s records show a similar Z-score in late 2024 coincided with a macro market low near $0.30 that preceded a subsequent price rise above $3.
CryptoQuant flagged a sharp spike in XRP Ledger transaction counts in April. CryptoQuant analyst TopNotchYJ wrote that past vertical spikes in transaction activity preceded significant price expansions, citing a late-2019 transaction uptick before a 2021 rally from about $0.15 to $1.79 and a July 2024 surge ahead of a move from $0.50 to a mid-2025 peak near $3.17.
On weekly charts, XRP is contained within a falling-wedge pattern. The lower trendline has been near $1.30 and the upper trendline near $1.50. A confirmed weekly breakout above roughly $1.50 produces a measured pattern target near $3.10, about 134% above current levels. The weekly relative strength index has recovered from oversold readings.
Analysts point out that negative MVRV values do not guarantee a trend reversal. Historical data cited by analysts show large percentage gains in past cycles following similar MVRV and Z-score readings, including multi-hundred percent moves in previous years.
Traders are monitoring daily resistance in the $1.40–$1.60 range and tracking whale wallet activity and monthly transaction counts, which recent data show at elevated levels compared with prior cycles. A CryptoQuant conservative macro projection places a longer-term target between $7.50 and $8.00 if the current consolidation gives way to a sustained uptrend.
Market participants note that onchain metrics and chart patterns are data points for analysis and do not ensure future price performance. All investments carry risk and past performance is not an indicator of future results.
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