NYDIG scenario: Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 by October

NYDIG’s second-quarter review projects bitcoin could sink to $38,000-$39,000 by October if the 2025-2026 drawdown matches the depth and timing of the 2022 bear market. The report applies a roughly 70% decline to bitcoin’s $126,080 peak in October 2025 to arrive at that corridor.

The analysis appeared in a report titled “Leverage Not Spot Demand Is Driving Bitcoin While Value and Momentum Buyers Wait.” The firm did not present the figure as a forecast and noted that 2025 was bitcoin’s least volatile year on record, which could compress any future decline.

Bitcoin traded near $64,500 when NYDIG released the review. The token is down about 30% year-to-date in 2026 and roughly 50% below its October 2025 high. Earlier in 2026 bitcoin hit a 21-month low of $58,035, an intraday drop that removed about $40 billion from the wider crypto market.

The report highlights that classic capitulation signs have not appeared, noting “no long-term-holder capitulation, no terminal insolvencies, and no reset.” It frames current price moves as driven more by leverage than by spot demand and reports that more than half of all bitcoin now sits at an unrealized loss.

Other market desks offer different levels for a floor. K33 Research views the dip into the low $60,000s as the cycle’s maximum drawdown and expects consolidation between roughly $60,000 and $75,000. Standard Chartered identifies a bottom near $59,000. Galaxy Digital has suggested a possible move near $40,000.

CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju warned the downturn could extend into early 2027. Grayscale set out two recovery scenarios that depend on macroeconomic developments over the coming months.

Positive economic data on July 14 pushed bitcoin above $65,000 intraday, demonstrating sensitivity to macro signals. NYDIG’s scenario uses past cycle declines and timing as a template rather than a market prediction.

Analysts remain divided on the size and timing of a durable bottom. NYDIG’s analysis presents a math-based path to a sub-$40,000 trough, while other desks point to higher support levels.