Nine Polymarket Accounts Netted $2.4M on Iran Bets

Nine linked Polymarket accounts netted about $2.4 million by placing accurate bets on U.S. military actions related to Iran, according to an on-chain investigation. The cluster won 98% of its wagers and was created days before initial U.S. strikes in late February.

On-chain analysis firm Bubblemaps traced the activity to nine interrelated wallets focused on markets tied to U.S. decisions about Iran. The wallets placed successful bets that aligned with the timing of several U.S. strikes, predicted the ouster of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and anticipated a short-term ceasefire. The group’s net gains on the prediction-market platform totaled roughly $2.4 million.

Bubblemaps reported the wallets recorded only a few small losses, each worth a few hundred dollars. Investigators contend those losses may have been taken deliberately to make the trading pattern look less unusual. The report says the winnings were moved to centralized exchanges, with large flows to Bybit and additional transfers through Binance and HTX, and that some transfers may have passed through third-party services to obscure the trail.

Nicolas Vaiman, chief executive of Bubblemaps, noted that the only circumstantial link to the United States was a single account handle, “whopperlover.” He said there is no direct evidence the users are American and that the accounts primarily focused on U.S. military markets related to Iran.

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.

The findings come weeks after a U.S. soldier was arrested on charges tied to betting on Polymarket with classified information. Federal prosecutors allege Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke used advance knowledge of an operation to place winning wagers that predicted the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s president, producing more than $400,000 in gains. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty, was released on $250,000 bond and ordered to surrender his passport and limit travel.

Lawmakers and regulators have raised questions about prediction markets that accept bets on political and national security outcomes. Some members of Congress have proposed new limits on those markets, while the U.S. administration has said existing laws can address unlawful activity. Bubblemaps’ report did not name individual suspects beyond the linked wallets or accuse anyone of a crime; it described on-chain patterns the firm said were consistent with coordination and deliberate obfuscation. Investigators note tracing final fund recipients is often complicated by the use of multiple exchanges and intermediary services.